Is Joe Burrow a player you should avoid this season at his current pricing or will he offer value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow's fantasy football ADP ranges widely as he comes off a Super Bowl trip last season. Has his value increased beyond what is reasonable as a result of the postseason run, or is Burrow's ADP a good value in fantasy football drafts?
Is Joe Burrow ADP Currently Valuable In Fantasy Drafts?
It is advisable to consider ADP in terms of the QB position for fantasy purposes rather than where players stand generally. The number of picks between 1QB and Superflex might range from 20 to 120. However, their value in comparison to the other members of the post is mostly unchanged.
Burrow's current ADP is QB6. He is listed as high as the QB5 on certain websites, but the QB10 on others. Joe Burrow is typically chosen between the fifth and sixth round in 1QB leagues, and in Round 1 of Superflex leagues. This highlights how different the two formats are in terms of how they affect QB values.
Projected Fantasy Value for Joe Burrow in 2022
When it comes to Burrow's hypothetical vision for 2022, there is a lot to analyse. With 19.6 points per game (ppg), he completed last year as the QB10. But he did it for an offence that only threw the ball 555 times in 2017. For the season, that is roughly 30 fewer throw attempts than the NFL average from 2021. In terms of play speed, the Bengals were again among the slower teams.
Therefore, it makes sense to assume that each of those aspects may experience some regression this year. Burrow would probably pass the ball more in that scenario, giving him the chance to rack up more fantasy points. The coaching staff, however, sets the tempo of the game and the number of pass attempts, so they are not only indicators of regression. There haven't been any changes to the Bengals' coaching staff, so a significant shift in offensive philosophy is hardly a given.
Related: Joe Burrow's calf injury
Last season, Burrow was among the most effective passers.
Burrow's regression hypothesis is accurate in a variety of ways. Many of things work against Burrow replicating his statistics in 2022, though. He was the league leader in yards per attempt and pass completion percentage (70.4). (8.9). His pass completion rate is not significantly higher than that of the other players at the position, and a 1% improvement only results in an additional five or six passes being made.
However, Burrow outperformed the competition by 0.3 yards per attempt, 1.1 yards more than the passer in fifth place, and 1.4 yards more than Justin Herbert, who was in tenth place. These figures translate to 156, 572, and 728 yards across 520 pass attempts, which is 6.24, 22.88, and 29.12 fantasy points in conventional QB scoring. Burrow acquired those figures over the course of 16 games, meaning he benefited from 0.39, 1.43, and 1.82 ppg thanks to his efficiency.
Burrow's fantasy production decreases to 18.17 ppg, which would have seen him finish 12th at the position, if we pick the middle of those three numbers (1.43), since anticipating Burrow to return to a top-five level is not a large stretch. A decrease from the QB10, albeit not a significant one.
It falls even further when you couple that with a modest dip in pass completion. In 1QB leagues, he is still the QB12 but is getting closer to being a non-starting option.
Progression of the Offensive Line
The Bengals' upgraded offensive line this offseason might be seen as both a good and a con. At 4.0 yards per attempt, Cincinnati's rushing offence was 23rd in terms of efficiency. Joe Mixon, their starting running back, finished 25th in yards before contact per attempt. Last season, he ranked sixth in broken tackles with an average of 1.9 yards gained after contact.
The balance of the offence might actually move even more in favour of the run game if Mixon and this offence have a more successful running game as a result of an upgraded offensive line. Burrow would be just above 30 attempts each game if that only results in two less pass attempts per game. Burrow would have placed 26th in that category, below Mac Jones and Taylor Heinicke at 30.6 and 30.9, respectively, if he had averaged exactly two fewer throw attempts per game.
The benefit of the offensive line upgrades is that Burrow should experience less pressure. Burrow's pressure percentage was the 14th highest at the position (24.5%), just ahead of quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, despite the offensive line difficulties. Despite this offensive line, Burrow made the fewest mistakes possible, 10.7%, which led the league. He was the league leader in on-target throw percentage (82.8%).
Burrow finished seventh in terms of sack rate (8.9%) and led the league with 51 sacks. Most scoring systems do not factor sacks into QB fantasy points. Burrow scarcely completed passes in 2022 due to pressure and sacks, which reduced his fantasy point total. Can we realistically expect any more progress with these o-line additions given that he was already the best in the league among qualifiers in that metric? To put it mildly, it is dubious.
Should Burrow get drafted in 2022?
None of the evidence presented here indicates that Burrow will be a poor quarterback in 2022. He'll probably regress a little in certain areas, but he won't turn horrible overnight. Burrow was still a top-12 quarterback with moderate slippage, as we predicted.
The story surrounding Burrow is that he will regress this year, but the majority of the ramifications are advantageous: faster play, more pass attempts, etc. They are coach- and scheme-dependent statistics, not large regression statistics. This offseason, neither Burrow's playbook nor his coaching staff have altered. What he is, he is. So why is his ADP comparable to QB5 and his average to QB7?
Burrow is ranked 10th in PFN's consensus 2022 QB fantasy rankings, which is where he finished last year. Although there are many reasons to hope for improvement, there are also numerous reasons why it may not materialise and why he may potentially produce less this year. Therefore, it would be incorrect to consider Burrow's ADP floor to be where he finished last year.
For your fantasy team's QB1, Burrow is a great pick. Regression is possible, but he still ends there. There is also cause for optimism that he will end the season among the top five quarterbacks. Burrow is currently being selected much beyond his realistic floor and too close to his ceiling, which is an issue.
Burrow's true value is as the QB8–10, in my opinion. Any earlier action on him exposes you to a significant loss of draft-based value when the year's end comes around.
Source: pro football network
